CO2 is changing the jet stream in ways that will create more Harveys

Climate science predicted a weaker jet stream, and Harvey stalled because of a weakened jet stream.

A 2012 study led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded global warming was driving changes in extreme weather in North America. “Our research reveals a change in the summer Arctic wind pattern over the past six years,” lead author James Overland of NOAA explained at the time. “This shift demonstrates a physical connection between reduced Arctic sea ice in the summer, loss of Greenland ice, and potentially, weather in North America and Europe.”

“Enhanced warming of the Arctic affects the jet stream by slowing its west-to-east winds and by promoting larger north-south meanders in the flow,” NOAA said in a press release. “The researchers say that with more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe but these will vary in location, intensity, and timescales.”

A 2015 study, “Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming,” concluded that global warming was driving an increase in the most extreme events because of “more frequent high-amplitude (wavy) jet-stream configurations that favor persistent weather patterns.”

Each large meander, or wave, within the jet stream is known as a Rossby wave. A 2014 study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) further explained that we’re seeing “an exceptional number” of extreme North American weather in recent years because  some Rossby waves are stalling out for extended periods of time: “the study shows that in periods with extreme weather, some of these waves become virtually stalled and greatly amplified.”

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